by individuals applying and by bankers deciding.

其中有个人的申请和银行的审批
I'm going to show you a picture just from one city,

这张图描述的是单个城市的情况
this is from Seattle, and what we've done here is

这是西雅图我们做的就是
we've gone from 2006-- what we've done is we've said,

从2006年开始我们讲过
"Let's extrapolate the housing price in 2006,

"通过2006年的数据来推测房价
let's extrapolate it and then use some econometrics to figure out

我们推断一下然后运用计量经济学
how far down we think it could go and how far up could go."

算出理论上的下跌下限和上涨上限"
Those are those two lines there, and then there's wigglyline

就是图中的这两条线
which shows you exactly what housing prices did.

这条曲线就是实际的房价
Actually I'm going to show you more in just a second.

稍后我还会再作解释
I want you to understand the geography of this first.

我想要大家先有一个基本的理解
These are confidence bands and if you're thinking--

这些是置信带