it's this lower bound; how bad can it get?

重要的是下限最糟的情况会怎样
If you're a banker that's the thing that tells you,

它是银行依据判断的标准
"Is this loan going to be a disaster?"

"这笔贷款将会成为灾难吗"
Every single one of these cities, virtually, the actual price just

然而事实上在每一个城市的价格
plunged right through the banker's confidence bands.

都跌破了银行的置信带
If you've got a model that's an econometric model

如果你基于往期价格走向建立经济模型
that's based on past price trends, and you ran that model in 2006

并且在2006年运用模型来预测的话
you wouldn't have been able to predict any of this crash.

就根本想不到会有这样的暴跌
You would have felt pretty confident that when you were

你会非常肯定
writing those mortgages, even the subprime mortgage,

进行抵押贷款甚至进行次级抵押贷款
that those were good bonds, that was a good loan.

都是不错的债券不错的贷款
A subprime loan doesn't mean that the house is bad;

次级债并不意味着房屋有多烂