99% probability Ale was this sane, nice, calm, Italian guy.

九成九埃里是个友善的意大利小伙子
But on the other hand, he just saw this sane, calm, Italian guy fight,

然而他刚看到了这位友善小伙子的攻击
as he shouldn't have fought because of backward induction--

通过逆向归纳法的考虑他本不应该攻击
fought the entrant in Miami.

不应该攻击迈阿密的进入者
So now Scott thinks to himself:

斯考特就想了
hmm, I'm not so sure that Ale is this sane guy.

是不是没有那么正常啊
Maybe I should update my beliefs in the direction of thinking

也许我应该好好想想
that Ale might actually be the insane guy.

也许埃里就是个疯子
So maybe--we're up to

所以有三分之一的机率
maybe a probability 1/3 that Ale's actually insane.

是个十足的疯子
So he thinks: okay, probability 1/3 that's still not very much,

他接着想三分之一也不是很高
I'll still risk it, he comes in,

所以他冒险进入了