but I think most observers would assign dominant influence

但是我认为大多数观察者会将主要原因归于
to the problems in the financial system associated with the S & L's

与储蓄贷款协会相关的金融系统
and the over extension of banks in real estate lending.

以及银行在房地产信贷上的过度扩张等问题
There's no question that almost any close watcher,

毫无疑问当任何一个经济观察家被问及
if asked to say, what was the 2001 recession about,

2001年的衰退是怎么一回事
they would say bursting of the technology bubble.

他们也许会说是科技泡沫的破灭
I'll have more to say about the 2008 recession

稍后以及明天我会更多地谈谈
a little later and tomorrow,

2008年的经济衰退
including some speculations on the probability that there is one.

包括有关概率的投机行为
No one would say of the current fluctuation

如果说到当前的波动
that it reflected the

没有人会认为这说明了
Federal Reserve's excessive or necessary effort

美联储为了抑制产品价格市场中的通胀