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That, just as success in curing infectious disease
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leads there to be far more cancer
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than there was before infectious disease was brought in check,
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so too the achievement of disinflation leads to an economy
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in which expansions are enabled to continue
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until they lead to the complacency and confidence
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associated with financial crisis.
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Perhaps we will have 6% inflation two years from now
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and the Fed will cause--Fed will find it necessary
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to engineer a recession
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and this theory will fall completely by the wayside.
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Perhaps there is an alternative,