So let's try and think through why it is we fall into a winner's curse.

我们来尝试想想为什么我们堕入了赢家的诅咒吧
So one way to think about this is to

我们一方面要从
think about na?ve bidding in this context.

对物品的原始出价来考虑
So suppose people's strategy was actually to bid their estimate.

假设人们的策略是按照估计来出价
I know that isn't what people did.

我知道人们并不这么做
Most people shaded their estimate a little bit.

大部分人会出稍稍低于他们的估计
But most people bid pretty close to their estimate.

但大部分人的出价和他们估的相当接近
What's going to happen in that instance is what?

那这时会发生什么呢
People are going to bid essentially what they think it's worth,

人们会真的按照他们所认为的来出价
and we just saw that fully half of you--

而我们刚才看到你们半数人
I should say half the people we sampled--

应该说半数样本
overestimated the number of coins in there.

高估了里面的硬币数量