how many coins do I think is in this jar, that's the naive thing.

罐子里的硬币数这很幼稚
The relevant estimate is:

相关估值是
how many coins do I think is in this jar

如果我摇了这个罐子
given my shaking of it and given the fact

并且我已经知道我赢得了拍卖后
that I have won the auction,

我应当做出的对硬币数的估值
given the supposition that I might win the auction.

假设我已经赢了这个拍卖
So the relevant estimate when bidding is

所以出价时的相关价值就是
how many coins do I think are there given my initial guess,

基于我一开始的估值以及这个估值Yi要比
Yi, and given that Yi is bigger than Yj.

Yj大时我认为的里面的硬币数
Now, notice this is kind of a weird thing.

注意了这有点奇怪
It's a counter factual thing.

这有点不符合事实
I don't know at the time at which I'm bidding,

在出价的时候我是不会知道