everything's independent and we've got it all figured out.

事件都是独立的可以算出一个结果
Underlying it there were other things besides

但是我们在这些特定假设之下
just the calculation of their accident rates

计算出来的事件概率之外
that had certain assumptions built in.

还有一些事情没有反映出来
The failure of the assumptions

这些假定的失败
in many different industries can create systemic effects.

在很多行业都能产生系统性作用
So what happened?

于是发生了什么
I'm going to talk about a particular line of monoline insurers

我想讲讲一类特殊的单线保险公司
that you may never have even heard of

你可能从来没有听过
because they don't deal with the general public.

因为他们从来不与公众打交道
These are municipal bond insurers.

这就是市政债券保险公司
These are private companies--insurance companies--they're monoline

他们是私人保险公司从事单线业务