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We see in flashbacks that basically
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Jacob has touched our plane survivors
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In their past lives.
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It's your choice, Hugo.
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Jacob's touch protected them from being killed
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And marked them as candidates to be his successor.
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So the man in black knows who the replacements are,
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And he knows when oceanic 815 crashes
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That some of Jacob's precious candidates
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Are, in fact, on that plane,
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so he starts to check 'em out.
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We might just have, uh, first been introduced