来自《大空头 第0集》

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  her chances of winning this hand are 87%.
  她有87%的概率能赢这局
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  So, my odds are good. I'm on a winning streak.
  因此 我的胜算很大 我连赢了好几局
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  Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action.
  这里的每个人都跃跃欲试
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  How could I lose, right?
  我怎么会输呢 对吗
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  Now, this is a classic error.
  这就是个经典的错误
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  In basketball it's called the Hot Hand Fallacy.
  在篮球中这叫热手谬误
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  A player makes a bunch of shots in a row.
  运动员连续投球命中
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  People are sure they're gonna make the next one.
  人们确信他们会投中下一个
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  People think that whatever's happening now
  人们认为现在发生的一切
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  is gonna continue to happen into the future.
  将来还会继续发生
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  During the real estate boom, markets were going up and up
  在房地产繁荣时期 市场持续火热
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  and people thought they would never go down.
  人们就认为房价再也不会下跌