来自《耶鲁大学开放课程：金融市场 第7集 第7集》
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It's a book about how people over interpret这本书阐述了人们如何过度解读自我 -
--they tend to blame themselves for failures人们会为失利而过度自责 -
and congratulate themselves for successes too much也会因成就而过于自喜 -
and they don't realize但人们却往往认识不到 -
that it's just random.这都只是些随机事件[机缘巧合]罢了 -
Some guy who's in a business--business is succeeding有些人在其所处的行业里取得成功 -
--why is it succeeding?他们为什么会成功呢 -
Because the guy came in,因为这个人正巧 -
dumb luck at the right time在最合适的时机进入了市场 -
and everything is supporting that, concludes that he's a genius.并且事事皆暗示着 他是个天才 -
Then Taleb observes them later,接下来 塔勒布观察了 -
after things don't go so well,他们在市场表现疲软时的反应