来自《耶鲁大学开放课程：金融市场 第7集 第7集》

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  Maybe I can get a show of hands.
  或许我该让你们举手表态一下
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  This is like Samuelson's lunch colleague again,
  这跟萨缪尔森那个午餐故事类似
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  but a little different.
  但也略有不同
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  Suppose I'm offering--
  假如我提供这样的机会
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  I'm not offering this, but suppose I offered this
  当然我不是真的提供 只是假设
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  --you have a choice between Prospect One or Prospect Two.
  你可以选择前景一或者前景二
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  Prospect One--I'm going to toss a four-sided coin
  前景一 假设有一种四面硬币
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  and if it comes up with a probability of
  如果在抛硬币游戏中你猜对了
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  one-fourth,
  即概率为25%
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  in a certain way, you will win $3,000.
  当然 你会赢得三千美元
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  In Prospect Two,
  前景二
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  I'm going to give you a chance of 20% to win $4,000.
  我给你们20%可能性赢得四千美元的机会