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how to think about a financial crisis recession
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in the context of a simple macroeconomic model.
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Everybody agrees on the movement of three variables in such a recession.
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Output goes down; q goes down;
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and short-term interest rates go down.
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One instinct, which is probably not the first instinct
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in the City of New Haven,
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is to think of that recession in a traditional ISLM curve,
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with the IS curve and the LM curve
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being plotted in a space determined by the level of output
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and the short term interest rate.
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In that formulation, it is clearly an IS shock.