来自《耶鲁大学开放课程：心理学导论 第10集 第10集》

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  of these people have it.
  可能也会被检测出来有
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  So, for every fifty-one people who test positive,
  这样每五十一个测试者中
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  only one will have the disease,
  只有一个真正得了这种病
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  giving an average of about two percent.
  得出平均几率大约是百分之二
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  This sort of thing is very difficult.
  这种推理过程是非常困难的
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  Our minds are not evolved to do base rate computation.
  我们的大脑不是进化来做基础比率运算的
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  And so, any problems involving base rate computation,
  任何和基础比率运算有关的问题
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  including real world problems,
  包括现实中的问题
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  like what to do when you come back with a positive test,
  比如当你确诊时该怎么办
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  we screw up.
  我们搞砸了
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  And often we screw up in the direction of panic.
  而且往往怕什么来什么
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  The third bias is the "availability bias."
  第三个偏见是可获得性偏差