来自《耶鲁大学开放课程：心理学导论 第10集 第10集》
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Our minds are not evolved to do base rate computation.我们的大脑不是进化来做基础比率运算的 -
And so, any problems involving base rate computation,任何和基础比率运算有关的问题 -
including real world problems,包括现实中的问题 -
like what to do when you come back with a positive test,比如当你确诊时该怎么办 -
we screw up.我们搞砸了 -
And often we screw up in the direction of panic.而且往往怕什么来什么 -
The third bias is the "availability bias."第三个偏见是可获得性偏差 -
And this is simply that这个就是 -
if you want to know how frequent something is,如果你想知道某件事发生几率的话 -
how available it is to come to mind is an excellent cue.你有多大的概率想到它是个很好的提示 -
But this could lead to mistakes.但这也可能是个误导 -
A classic example by Kahneman and Tversky卡宁曼和特沃斯基的一个经典例子