来自《耶鲁大学开放课程：金融市场 第2集 第2集》

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  They have maybe a sense that I can influence events
  他们也许觉得 我可以通过意愿或者许愿
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  by willing or wishing and if I think that--
  来影响事件的发展 也许...
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  if I have kind of a mystical side to me,
  我说不定有神力相助
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  then probabilities don't have a clear meaning.
  如此概率这个概念就有些模棱两可了
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  It has been shown that even today people seem to think that.
  即便如今 人们似乎仍然无法理解概率
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  They don't really take, at an intuitive level,
  从直觉上来说 他们并不真的认为
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  probabilities as objective.
  概率是客观的
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  For example, if you ask people
  比如说 如果你问人们
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  how much they would be willing to bet on a coin toss,
  他们愿意出多少钱去赌掷硬币
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  they will typically bet more
  如果他们可以掷硬币
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  if they can toss the coin or they will bet more
  或在硬币还没被掷出前
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  if the coin hasn't been tossed yet.
  他们会下更大的注