going to be 4 percent in year 2.

第二年的利率肯定是4%
How could the market get to a 5 percent forward?

市场不可能得到5%这样的远期利率
That means that some guy is promising today,

那么意味着有人今天跟你承诺
"You give me 1 dollar in year 2 and I'll give you 1 dollar 5 in year 3."

第二年你给我1元第三年我给你1.05元
And we're agreeing to that deal.

我们达成这个协议
But that's a ludicrous thing for him to do,

但这样做他除非是傻了
because when he got to year 2, he could simply--

他知道未来会发生什么
if he knew for sure what was going to happen in the future

如果他对未来的事情很肯定
and that the rate was going to be 4 percent,

知道利率只有4%
he would just--I said it backwards. What an idiot.

我说反了他多愚蠢啊
Suppose he knew for sure the rate was going to be 6 percent,

假如他确切知道利率是6%
he would be-- if he knews for sure the rate was only going to be 4 percent,

他确切知道利率是4%